Planning for Uncertainty: Co-creating Climate-Informed Economic Pathways for South Africa’s Just Transition
South Africa faces the dual challenge of addressing deep structural inequality while navigating a complex transition to a low-carbon economy under conditions of high uncertainty. Traditional planning approaches – based on single forecasts and linear assumptions – are increasingly inadequate for decision-making in this context. To address this, the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC), through the EDP and with UK-PACT support, convened a multi-stakeholder process to develop climate-informed economic scenario narratives and associated pathways for 2050.
Bringing together stakeholders from government, business, labour, civil society, youth, and faith-based organisations, the project combined technical modelling with participatory dialogue to co-create plausible scenario narratives and associated pathways and identify “no-regret” policy actions to help move South Africa towards a just and inclusive low carbon future.
Strengthening decision-making, alignment, and legitimacy in climate and economic planning under uncertainty
The project resulted in a set of nationally relevant, stakeholder-informed scenario narratives and pathways, alongside a practical Guidance Note for applying this approach within sector planning as well as a Recommendations Report adopted by the PCC in March 2026. These outputs are already being used to shape and inform key national planning processes, including the PCC/CSIR Air Quality Co-Benefits analysis, the Department of Transport’s Green Transport Strategy, the new Integrated Energy Plan (IEP), the Eskom Grid Study, and South Africa’s Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS). In doing so, the project has strengthened the evidence base underpinning climate‑related economic planning across multiple sectors.
By building shared understanding across government and society, the project also strengthened the legitimacy of planning for the just transition. Convening stakeholders who are often excluded from technocratic planning – such as youth, labour and civil society – helped build trust in the process, improve dialogue around mitigation pathways, and support greater alignment around the scale and inevitability of transition challenges.
Looking ahead, scaling this approach across additional sectors and deepening engagement with affected communities will be essential to embedding climate-informed, evidence-based and inclusive decision-making within South Africa’s economic development trajectory. The project provides both a tested methodology and practical tools that can support this next phase.
