Exploring climate-informed futures: insights from the multistakeholder economic scenarios workshop

On 2 September 2025, diverse voices from business, national and local government, civil society, and youth came together in Johannesburg to explore possible climate and economic futures for South Africa under the Presidential Climate Commission’s (PCC) Developing Scenarios for Climate-Informed Economic Pathways through Stakeholder Dialogue Project. Through collaborative discussions with stakeholders across sectors the workshop tested and interrogated draft scenario descriptions or ‘narratives’ of four plausible economic futures for South Africa based on the level of local and global climate action coordination undertaken. The key outcome of this project is to develop a set of “No Regret Actions” to enable South African policy makers to plan and move towards a future that is beneficial for all South Africans.

Setting the scene

Stakeholders engaged with potential climate change scenarios and their economic impacts at the PCC’s economic pathways stakeholder engagement workshop held in September 2025. Credit: Lewis Malapane.

What is scenario planning? This was answered during the opening session. Stakeholders agreed that scenario planning is not a prediction of a specific outcome, but a way to objectively structure our thinking and explore plausible futures to prepare for uncertainty. Ahead of the workshop, participants were sent four scenario narratives that each described a possible economic and climate future in South Africa based on two axes: Global climate action and local climate action. These two axes enable us to imagine four possible scenarios or ‘worlds’ based on how co-ordinated global and local climate action is:

• Scenario 1 – No one leads describes a possible world where there is little to no climate action both locally, in South Africa and globally.
• Scenario 2 – Rest of the world leads, South Africa lags describes possible impacts on South Africa’s economy in a scenario where South Africa does not follow the global trend to coordinate climate action.
• Scenario 3 – South Africa leads, rest of the world lags provides insight into a possible future for South Africa when we lead with strong climate action while the world remains uncoordinated.
• Scenario 4 – Leading together explains a possible scenario where South Africa joins the rest of the world in coordinating climate action

Coming into the workshop space, participants asked clarifying questions about these scenario narratives and offered feedback and reflection, including whether the scenarios adequately captured social systems, informal economies, and the realities of South Africa’s infrastructure and governance challenges.

Breaking into “systems” thinking

Coming into the workshop space, participants asked clarifying questions about four different scenario narratives, offering feedback and reflection on these. Credit: Lewis Malapane.

A core focus of the workshop was for participants to surface how various pre-selected development systems would be affected within the four different economic scenarios. In this context, systems refer to six interconnected economic, social, and environmental systems in which the scenario narratives or descriptions are embedded. The systems are: energy, economics/industry, human settlements & transport, land use & agriculture/food, water and institutions/governance.

Participants were urged to bring their perspectives and insights into each scenario through the lenses of each system to test the thoroughness and correctness of the scenario. Key feedback provided is outlined below:

• Economic & industrial systems: Participants felt that the informal and coastal economies were not sufficiently considered in the narratives.
• Institutional & political systems: A recurring theme was the impact of the strength of governance on all aspects of the scenario narratives. Corruption was flagged as a greater possible barrier than lack of resources.
• Energy systems: Concerns included the realism of relying heavily on gas, the affordability of fossil fuels, and whether a fully renewable grid (as in ‘Leading Together’) is feasible. Participants urged recognition of technological diversity and the socio-economic impacts of coal transitions.
• Human settlements & mobility systems: Discussions focused on resilience, migration, corruption and accessibility. Participants warned against “fairy godmother” technologies, emphasised maintenance of existing infrastructure, and noted the importance of designing solutions with low-income and rural communities in mind.
• Land use & agriculture systems: Missing issues included biodiversity, ecosystem services, and food access or control. Stakeholders stressed the importance of indigenous knowledge, agro-ecology and opening agricultural value chains to emerging farmers and youth.
• Water systems: Water was highlighted as a cross-cutting and transboundary issue. Participants urged recognition of community-led water management in the scenarios interlinkage of water into each of the other five systems.

Cross-cutting insights

Through these in-depth discussions, several cross-cutting insights emerged across the systems which have a role in shaping South Africa’s climate and economic futures. The effect of migration flows on all systems, quality of governance which underpins the success of climate action, and the influence of technology and innovation were considered major drivers of climate-economic transformation. Furthermore, participants stated the need for more explicit of accounting for the informal coastal economies when considering system-wide impacts.

Looking forward

The workshop reinforced that while scenarios provide structured ways to imagine possible futures, they are only as useful as the assumptions they challenge and the conversations they spark. Participants provided substantive, clear inclusions to the scenario narratives while indicating required areas of clarity and expansion.

As the PCC continues to refine these scenarios, the key message from this workshop was clear: climate pathways must be inclusive, evidence-based, and rooted in South Africa’s socio-economic context.

The next roundtable engagements will be held from the in October 2025 and will focus on testing pathways to each scenario enabling the PCC to put forward ‘No Regret Actions’ for policy makers to consciously move towards a specific scenario. These roundtable engagements will be followed by a multi-stakeholder workshop on the 25 November 2025 where the final scenarios and pathways will be presented to stakeholders. If you would like more information, please reach out to our Project Manager, Innocentia Modau (Innocentia@wcedp.co.za) for more information and keep an eye on our social media to find out how to participate in these important discussions.

Acknowledgements: The author gratefully acknowledges contributions from Michelle du Toit and Innocentia Modau in shaping this blog post. 
Edited: Natalie Tannous

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